IMF Downgrades Global Growth Forecasts and Warns of Fragile Economy
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its global growth forecasts, predicting that the world economy will expand by 2.8% this year and 3% in 2024. These figures are slightly below the IMF's previous estimates published in January, with a cut of 0.1 percentage point for both this year and next.[0] The IMF warns that global growth could fall below 2% this year with a 25% probability.[1] Meanwhile, global headline inflation is expected to fall from 8.7% last year to 7% this year, with core inflation declining more slowly.[2] Advanced economies are expected to experience a pronounced growth slowdown from 2.7% in 2022 to 1.3% in 2023.[3] The IMF predicts that China's economy will quicken to 5.2% GDP growth in 2023 from 3% last year but will slow to 4.5% in 2024. The IMF's managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, has warned that a more fragile global economy will bring slower growth and greater financial fragility.[4]
0. “IMF cuts GDP forecasts, says global economy heading for weakest growth since 1990” CNBC, 11 Apr. 2023, https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/11/imf-world-economic-outlook-april-2023-weak-growth-forecasts-inflation-high-until-2025.html
1. “Global Financial System Tested by Higher Inflation and Interest Rates” International Monetary Fund, 11 Apr. 2023, https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/04/11/global-financial-system-tested-by-higher-inflation-and-interest-rates
2. “Global economy ‘entering perilous phase' amid ‘much stickier' inflation, says IMF” The Irish Times, 11 Apr. 2023, https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2023/04/11/global-economy-entering-perilous-phase-imf-warns/
3. “Ultra Low Interest Rates Will Be Back — But That's Not Entirely A Good Thing For Real Estate” Bisnow, 11 Apr. 2023, https://www.bisnow.com/london/news/economy/ultra-low-interest-rates-are-coming-back-but-thats-not-entirely-a-good-thing-118465
4. “‘Something is going to go boom': IMF chief warns of a more fragile global economy” POLITICO, 6 Apr. 2023, https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/06/imf-fragile-global-economy-inflation-svb-00090797
